Did little Ellen Degeneres bring down big American Idol? Many say "yes." What do you say?

For awhile now, the question’s been raised as to why American Idol’s audiences—and, more precisely the ratings—are down.  Now at the end of its ninth season, American Idol’s been a colossal success, a virtual money-making machine for its creators and, presumably, its sponsors.  As I listen to the talk of others, various reasons are floated, like the absence of Paula Abdul, the participation of Ellen DeGeneres as the new judge in her place, and a variety of others.  As recently as two days ago, I ran across a headline from the trade media that raised this question, “Did Ellen Degeneres just drive another nail into the coffin of the ‘Idol’ era?”

You have to understand viewing audience's preferences.

People who seriously propose her as the culprit demonstrate little understanding of American consumers and prime time programming.  Entertainment, by definition, is based in large part on the seeking out of novelty, interest, and intrigue.  Indeed, the purpose of a television show is to provide the viewer with some form of entertainment that is clever, unusual, and uncertain of outcome—at least in part.  And much of the early success of any program is exactly the delivery on these elements.  As a series matures, producers and writers are often challenged to keep the material “fresh” and interesting; it is during this period that they run some mounting risk of “jumping the shark.”

It should not be forgotten that Americans as a collection of people are innovation seekers and change-adopters—they make up a culture that is based, to some greater or lesser degree, on the hunt for what is new, different, better.  As television watchers, Americans have a serious bias for freshness.

Idol simply used to be more special than it is for many today.

For many, American Idol—while not really a new programming concept, for Arthur Godfrey did much the same thing over 50 years ago in the early days of TV—was a very interesting concept in its early seasons.  Installments were viewed with religious fervor; “voting” for your favorite performers was a valued ritual; talk at the office the next day was about who’d be voted off the show.  Most of those people now watch much more infrequently, vote—if at all—less and less, and fundamentally are less involved as to who’s leaving and who’s going to go on. 

Prime time shows used to last a long, long time.

And who’s surprised?  The rate of television programming longevity today stands in stark contrast to what it was in earlier periods.  When one looks at the number of prime time entertainment series that commenced at the start of television broadcasting—basically the 1950’s—the findings are very telling.  During this first decade there were 22 weekly entertainment shows, all that had an average lifetime of 16 seasons [including The Ed Sullivan Show for 23 years, The Red Skelton Show for 20 years, and Gunsmoke for 23 years]. 

But these days they simply don't.

By contrast, for weekly prime time entertainment programs that have run in the past decade, only two [Survivor and The Amazing Race] have had a run for as long as American Idol; indeed, since 2000, American Idol has continued longer than virtually all others except one [Survivor]. 

So, back to the question of whether Paula’s absence or Ellen’s presence has been a blow to American Idol’s popularity or rating demise.  Critics can blame Ms. DeGeneres for the weakened ratings of American Idol, but her presence on the show has been pleasant enough—and compared to other previous and present judges--just as competent and discriminating.  In many ways she’s been funnier and more endearing that most. 

Many viewers are on to other things--irregardless of Ellen or Paula.

However, a rationale for her destroying the audience strength is purely co-incidental, not causal; in other words, she has simply been on the show during when a likely decline would reasonably be expected; almost certainly she didn’t cause it.  Whatever drop-off there is is most likely due to the public’s voracious appetite for what’s new, novel, and intriguing.  For many early and middle period fans, they have by now figured out the ebbs and flows of the show and are increasingly prepared to spend their time doing something else that’s more novel and less predictable. 

Based on the now 60-year-old history of television programming and an informed appreciation of consumer preferences and viewer behavior, one should anticipate American Idol to begin an understandable tapering off in the ratings.  While the “run” for American Idol has been remarkably strong by recent standards, viewers’ appetite for newness is very much in evidence, too.  Thus, a decline in the show is inevitable. 

What this adds up to is this:  Ellen, don’t let the drop-off blamers scare you.  You may sit down.  You are safe.
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