If the swine flu hasn't killed you yet, you should wonder about this: Is the H1N1 fight right?

Government doesn't work like the free market--it may not even be close.

There's nothing particularly sacred about health care products being the exclusive--much less the to-be-preferred--domain of governments, save, perhaps, for calamity or disaster-response situations.  This is the case for the simple reason that there is no particular effectiveness nor efficiency that comes from letting government entities manage the estimation of need, the generation of demand, and the competent distribution and delivery of such goods and services...including health care goods and services.  Instead, that's the expert domain of large multi-national firms every day--for the federal government its a once-in-a-hundred years event to manage.

Last week it was announced that the $1.6B H1N1 vaccine program was on the verge of needing to destroy close to 30% of the manufactured dosages created, or about a half a billion dollars, if they are not used before an imminent use-by date.  

But, you say, "Hey the H1N1 pandemic hasn't materialized like it was predicted to and that's a good thing, shouldn't we be happy about that fact that we don't need all the prepared doses?  What's the problem?"  Well, yeah, I suppose it's a good thing, but only sort of.  Let me explain.  

Here's the problem.

There are a number of issues to be sore about, beginning, potentially, with exaggerated estimates. First, let's put the failure of the pandemic to materialize in a little perspective:  The CDC estimates that the average number of people killed as a result of the flu each year is 36,000; in 2009 the number of people who succumbed to the swine flu was only 12,000--a far cry from an epidemic when compared to a number three times that!  

Well, you argue, the failure to produce a pandemic was a result of all of the inoculations from the H1NI vaccines in the first place.  Clearly, I'm the wrong guy to ask--I simply don't know--but I do know that you can't have it both ways:  either the administration of the inoculations "worked"--and, thus, explain the success in averting disaster; in which case you'd expect to have only a small proportion of the vaccines left on-hand.  But that, I remind you, is not the case; disaster was perhaps dodged by use of far fewer than planned for--pointing to a huge estimation blunder in the demand for preventative supplies.  

Hey, wait, maybe the criticism is premature!  

Some say, however, that the possibility of doom is still not over: authorities persist to warn that a pandemic threat continues, that the period we are in could simply be the calm before a third wave of the flu. U.S.; Surgeon General Regina Benjamin warned last week that the “flu season is not over.”

Well, then, wait a minute: if the flu season is not over, why isn't the preventative supply of H1N1 inoculations being drawn down to a point that would obviate the need to destroy unused doses--the ones which were otherwise slated to protect vulnerable populations?  If the worst is still to come, why isn't there a concerted campaign--Paul-Revere-like in stimulating demand--to alert vulnerable groups, then to distribute, and finally to actually administer $500M-worth of vaccines?

I'll choose a free-enterprise over a command economy model every time.

Coming or going the federal government didn't--maybe still isn't--doing the job of managing the swine flu matter that, frankly, it's not good at, wasn't intended to be good at, and likely never will be good at.  Private enterprise--of course with public policy interest, oversight and guidance--is by far more promising a vehicle to manage a planned campaign to avert a genuine, specific disaster.  Similarly [I bet you've already guessed what a pro-business guy's going to say next!] a free enterprise approach will work better, i.e., efficiently, as well in the estimate for, planning of, and the actually delivery of the long-term basket of goods and services associated with health care more broadly.  

I'm pretty sure I'm correct on this; the mis-management of the swine flu response is but one example of government intervention that doesn't help my critics show otherwise. 
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