The "new normal": A term you may need to get comfortable with.

For over a year, speculation in business has focused on two important issues:  how drastic will the recession be? After that, how soon will a turn around occur that gets us back to "normal"?  A reading of the stock market over that last year has provided a partial answer to the first question; unemployment figures speak to the second one--and, at best, the jury still seems to be "out" on that matter and a worse interpretation is that there's no sign in sight for a rapid turn around!  

What is interesting to note--and this is different than most lay-people are thinking--is increasing business prognostication that uses the term "new normal."  New normal is the idea that a fast bounce-back may not occur--that what we presently see all around us in terms of strength of markets is what the short- to intermediate-term holds in store--that getting back to strength of markets is not likely to be store very soon.  

This view is hardly surprising in the sense what nothing different can be expected with unemployment figures continuing to rise, or even just stay high.  Because our economy is predicated for the most part on consumer expenditures, people out of a job don't buy very much, if at all; people who are still among the employed, they are cautious with respect to their expenditures for a variety of problems.  Simply put, there just isn't much consuming going on.  The anticipation of 

If you are a manager--or part of a management team--it is important that you have a fairly healthy sense of what's in store for business in the U.S.  In todays Wall Street Journal, there's a feature article on the new normal that features Supervalu, the fourth largest grocery chain in the country.  You might find the printed interview with the CEO, Craig Herkert, interesting--especially if you're in retailing--but the essential take-away I got is that an increasing number of businesses--and in this case, Supervalu--are deciding to accept the present economic conditions are ones that are here to stay--for an extended period of time.  

That is not how most ordinary people are thinking--but they might be [I strong suspect that indeed they are] wrong.  However, business leaders need to be clear-headed about what's happening--or, better put, not happening in the economy--and make the needed adjustments to adapt.  

More tomorrow on "new normal."  It's a term that may, unfortunately for business and consumers alike, have staying power.  

[In addition, should you find it interesting from a personal perspective, is a short video clip of with Supervalu's CEO on what it means to plan and manager a career.]

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