Wednesday, October 7, 2009 at 6:00AM This guy should be in sales forecasting or financial predictions--he'd make a fortune!
What happened last week in terms of predicting the future--in other words, making a perfect forecast--is almost unheard of. You will, if you haven't learned of it by now, find it almost unbelievable when I tell you about it. But let's do the lesson first before we reveal the story.
It is an ideal in business that is rarely honored--usually for lack of ability by anyone to actually do it. Few people--maybe except for MBAs who learn from their wise professors the need to strive to make it happen--really get the point of making the estimated future coincide with the reality of a moment in time yet to happen. It's called forecasting and applies most commonly to sales estimates; it can also pertain to financial predictions, say, in the form of stock performance, etc.
Most people unsophisticated in the ways of the world of commerce, alway have a sense--misguidedly as it turns out--that actual sales which are greater than estimated are better than estimates that are the same or less than expected. After all, isn't more of a good thing [i.e., sales], well, a good thing?!!
As it turns out, not really. And that's because less-than-perfectly-accurate estimates, or forecasts, almost always mean wastage and inefficiency in the operation of the firm with respect to manufacturing, financing, promotion, or sales force deployment--or maybe all of these...all at the same time! The ideal of managing in a less-than-perfect world is to guide the firm by decisions which reflect as flawless an understanding of what it take to make supply and demand become the same thing! Hence, the need to see the future clearly, perfectly, and precisely! Not more. Not less. But exactly right.
Few individuals are correct even a majority of the time they're called on to carry this out; there are heuristics that assist managers to make reasonably good estimates as many times as possible; from time-to-time predictions about the future are simply way off.
And then, there's the story of Mike Blowers that took place last week--which defines the upper limit of accuracy with respect to fore-seeing the future and being able to describe it accurately.
Last week, Mr. Blowers, a utility infielder in his previous career, is today a play-by-play baseball commentator for the Seattle Mariners. On Sunday in a pre-game interview, while being interviewed by Matt Rizzs, made a very specific public prediction--indeed, the interview occurred and was broadcast during the pre-game show. Blowers matter of factly stated that Mariners' outfielder, Matt Tuiasosopo would [1] hit his first major league home run [2] in the game to be played later that day [3] in his second at bat, [4] on a 3-1 count, [5] taking a fastball pitch [6] into the left field bleachers. Now that's a precise, point-in-time forecast!
Take a moment from reading this right now and cut away to hear the rest of the story by checking out the audio clip [i.e., it's an mp3 file] at the bottom of this post. What you will hear is the story as reported by Tony Kornheiser and Mike Wilbon on their nightly ESPN TV show, Pardon the Interruption, in a less than 2-minute audio file.
If this weren't a once-in-a-lifetime fluke, Mr. Blowers could make a fortune on Wall Street--or a fabulous salary as a VP for Sales in a large corporation! He likely can't do what he did very often--but it sure makes a great tale to tell of what perfection looks like.
To be sure, it's an amazing story reported on by ESPN's Kornheiser and Wilbon; however, if you are still sceptical you can see for yourself--one more time, but now with your eyes as well the pre-game coverage and then the broadcast in real time by local television station KIRO that covers the games. Enjoy the moment again but also learn the lesson of what success looks like in the prediction business! The story here is to make exactly the right prediction at the designated time. In sports or business, it doesn't get better than this one!
Here, again, is the link to video footage of the event as shown on TV!
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Reader Comments (1)
That is incredible!!!!!!!!