Hey, Barbie, wanna be Joe's girl now?

It's a long and complicated story, but opens a window on the marketplace and on how marketing works--or, more precisely, doesn't work!  I promise you, there's a point to be made.  But first, a few words about the object of our affection.  

Barbie--the doll, that is--was [is still, really] an American legend, a cultural icon.  But there's a problem:  That's all still true, but less so today than yesterday.  Despite all the help she's received from her once-young-but-now-old-themselves friends, her young fans, plastic surgeons, corporate sponsors, and PR agents, Barbie's no longer the hot date to the prom; she's not "going steady" anymore and, indeed, she may not even have a date for up-coming weekend!  

And the worst part of it all--her plight is now all over town:  her story--as recently as this week--was in the papers, indeed, on the front page of the Wall Street Journal [see Ann Zimmerman's "Mattel hopes Barbie facelift will show up younger rivals"]! What once-young-but-now-senior-female needs that kind of publicity as she traverses a regrettable passage of life? What happened to the target of everyone's affection and adoration?  

Well, fifty years have passed and a ton of money has been spent, first on the development of a lot of different models of Barbie and clothes to dress her many variations up in; subsequently even more money was spent--at the high-water mark, $1.9B a year--by consumers to have the latest in all that was Barbie.  However, two events have started to change in the Cinderella story.  First, two new dolls now compete with Barbie for the public's attention and adoration, one by by Spin Master, called Liv...and one by MGA Entertainment, the Moxie Girlz line of new girl action figures.  Both seem to be anatomically more interesting, if not sexier than Barbie; by most acclaim, the new dolls are thought to be more modern and appealing to today's young doll consumers than the old girl herself.

All of this new competition for the affection of little doll consumers comes at a time when their kind is shrinking--little girls are increasingly less interested in dolls in the first place, choosing, instead, to play video games, listen to iPods, goof around on the internet.  In the not too distant future, consumer expenditures will approach 50% of sales once almost as high as $2B for all things Barbie.  She's still the number one doll in the U.S., but that's a relative position, not an absolute one any more.  

So what's the point?  The Barbie lesson is one that fools most people--even those in business--and that is this:  Success is never without it's decline and end point, as unexpected as this is to many who are charmed by long-term preeminence.  Many implicitly expect that marketing success stories are largely a function of marketing savvy--which, in some part, they are.  However, not to the degree that many attribute to it.  Who would predict the decline of General Motors? Of Washington Mutual?  Of TWA or Pam Am?  Of Max Factor?  

Barbie, in truth, has had a very long run...and will still be with us for a while longer, there's no doubt about that; however, the next fifty years, if there are that many to contemplate, will be very different.  Barbie's old now and the old and young people she used to appeal are different than the people she must appeal to today to thrive--and there's little that marketing, per se, can do to change that.  

Here were talking about the social, cultural, and psychological "ideals" that plastic Barbie once thrived on; indeed, they are shifting and, likely, changing faster than she can.  Let's face it, the social tastes and sensibilities of people--people who used to buy and play with Barbie dolls have changed.  Grown women who were once young avid, devoted fans of Barbie are now increasingly hesitant to buy their old doll friend for their own daughters. Indeed, social roles have changed far more dramatically than Barbie has or can--and isn't that the problem?  Were she to change too much...well, she wouldn't be the Barbie we know and like!  

Freshness and innovation are desired and sought by consumers, and marketing can't appreciably alter those kind of events, as much as some in business wish it could.  Not the least of whom are Barbie and her corporate handlers. Which brings us, briefly, to G.I. Joe--who's appreciably older than Barbie by almost 20 years!  He couldn't in the marketplace be more vital!  For him, sales are up; hell, he's the lead in his own movies.  So, you ask, why hasn't he reached senior status decline as well?  While some of his continued success is, in part, due to skilled marketing management, it is more likely attributable to his continuing appeal to central, still-closely held, enduring themes in the American character and psyche which, unfortunately, are not as true for his toy-store friend, Barbie.  All of which points to an exception that proves the rule.  

Hey, Barbie, isn't it about time for you and Joe to go steady for awhile?  

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